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The duration of disruptive events varies significantly, as do the capabilities and resources of different utilities. The duration of the actual disruptive event is always much shorter than the period from planning through final recovery. It can last many hours for hurricanes to minutes or even seconds for tornadoes and earthquakes. Project blackout hacks 2020. Floods can last many days or a small number of weeks. The longest duration, however, is for cyber events. The outage may only last a short time, but the period from cyber breach to detection and remediation may last many months. In the recent hack (pop over to this website) in Ukraine, the breach occurred 9 months before power was interrupted. The hackers used this time to learn how to control the breached systems.

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Geological Survey maintains an active warning program (USGS, 2016b). Clearly the best strategy to avoid problems is to locate critical facilities away from vulnerable locations. However, as Figure 3/13 illustrates, in the case of Mount Rainier, the impacted region can be quite large. Additional damage can be caused by fine particulate dust and falling ash, which can cause insulator flashovers and potentially disable transformers. The geographic extent of falling ash may greatly exceed the immediate hazard area.

Many important infrastructures, physical and/or cyber attacks on that system can impact delivery of other critical services. An attack on the power system undertaken in conjunction with other terrorist action could be especially harmful.

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Extreme ice events and the associated costs of outages to support greater investment. Techniques being explored for distribution systems include helically staked guying for poles, hydrophilic coating to help electrical infrastructure shed ice, and disconnecting wires that fall to the ground without damaging poles.

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Finding: Some organizations that are responsible for monitoring and preparing for natural hazards, such as floods and tornadoes, have a local focus that can overlook spatial correlation and broader system risks. Nonetheless, local assessments such as the “Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment,”4 encouraged by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, can provide valuable resources for utilities to build upon.

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A variety of solar activities (referred to as space weather, point S in Figure 3/1) can impact the earth’s environment (NRC, 2008). Large bursts of charged particles ejected by storms on the sun, called coronal mass ejections, can intersect the earth, causing fluctuations in earth’s magnetic field that create very low frequency voltage gradients across land, generally at northerly latitudes, and induce quasi-steady-state current that can flow in long transmission lines. These low-frequency currents can cause saturation of transformer magnetic cores and result in damage from overheating. Transformer saturation can also result in reactive power and harmonic generation, which can impact the entire power system. The largest storm of this type in the historical record is the 1859 Carrington Event, which caused telegraph systems in the United States and Europe to fail. More recently, smaller solar storms have caused blackouts and very limited damage in power systems. In March 1989, approximately 6 million people lost power for up to 9 hours across Québec from a solar storm that damaged a few transformers and other equipment. A smaller hour-long outage occurred in Sweden in October 2003.

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Temporal and spatial variations of freezing rain in the contiguous United States: 1948–2000. Journal of Applied Meteorology 42(9): 1302–1315.

While the DOD is very experienced in this area, less attention has been directed to protecting civilian infrastructure. The concern is that one of these devices might target a control center, disrupting some or all of its computers and communications.

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A number of historical blackouts (find out) have been caused by one or more faults, typically when the system is heavily loaded, that could have been managed if not for a sequence of subsequent operator errors. The network structure of the grid allows large-scale disruptions to result from distant, localized electrical faults, and system irregularities can propagate near instantaneously, generally through the work of protection relays acting unexpectedly to unusual system conditions.

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In addition to disrupting the bulk power system, flooding can make access difficult for distribution system repair crews, cause damage by flooding manholes, and cause other problems in underground distribution systems and components. This suggests that care should be taken in design and building of underground systems in flood-prone areas.

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The electric fields associated with EMP can impact power systems directly (E1 and E2) or induce currents in transmission lines similar to the low frequency currents associated with GMD events (E3). Small, suitcase-size EMP devices2 can also cause electromagnetic disturbances that can impact the power systems’ (especially substation) equipment, but the impacts will likely be very localized. A nuclear weapon or a dedicated non-nuclear EMP device detonated at a high altitude could cause widespread damage to the electricity grid; nonetheless, understanding of this risk is largely theoretical. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) collaborated with DOE recently to develop a Joint Electromagnetic Pulse Strategy that outlines broad objectives and research needs but stops short of presenting a plan for EMP hardening (DOE and EPRI, 2021).

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Critical substations could have been affected by flooding in drainage basins. Utilities have less experience handling certain risks—notably those related to cyber attack—which makes assessing and planning more difficult.

FIGURE 3/14 Notional time series of a major power outage divided into six stages. The length of each stage and the activities performed by utilities and others involved in the response vary for different disruptions.

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Air Force jointly operate the Space Weather Prediction Center that uses solar and satellite observations (including NOAA’s DSCOVR satellite at the L1 point in deep space) to provide forecasts of space weather events. By observing the limb of the rotating sun, the addition of a satellite at L5 could provide valuable additional advance warning (Gibney, 2021).

The relative length of each stage and the activities undertaken by utilities and other organizations involved in the response are different depending upon the type of disruption. Likewise, the activities undertaken by utilities during each of these stages also varies significantly based on the resources available and the technological characteristics of the impacted system. As briefly introduced below and as outlined in the following chapters, there are many strategies that can help utilities perform better through the entire outage life cycle.

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Climate scientists have long predicted more frequent and more intense wildfires as a result of ongoing climate change (NCAR, 1988). While fire typically does not cause widespread damage to power systems, it can have major impacts on specific substations and transmission systems, and operators may have to re-route power flows to avoid affected areas. Vulnerability can often be limited with vegetation control, although very large fires can often jump even the most aggressive protective margins. Restoration of fire-damaged facilities can require days or weeks. Fire is denoted as point W in Figure 3/1.

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Along with winter storms, hurricanes and tropical storms3 (Point H in Figure 3/1) are some of the largest sources of disruption of power systems. As illustrated by Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Katrina, the resulting destruction can be widespread. Sandy was an immense and meteorologically complex storm that caused outages in 17 states and the District of Columbia, with the impacts beginning over a relatively short period of time. In contrast, Hurricane Katrina was a very different storm.

The blue line in Figure 3/14 illustrates the percentage of load that may be served over time, from the initial full level until the start of the event, at which point load begins to drop off. Load persists at a reduced level for some period until restoration beings. Power is then restored, although sometimes not to the full pre-event level, as electricity-consuming entities may have been damaged or destroyed. If the event caused significant physical damage, load may continue to build slowly during a multi-year recovery period as electricity systems are restored, homes are reoccupied, and businesses reopen.

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Finally, in the extreme upper right corner of Figure 3/1 is point D, for drought. Droughts have multiple implications for power systems, ranging from reduced hydroelectricity generation, limited availability of cooling water for power stations, or increased demand for power needed for pumping and treatment. The IPCC report on extreme events concluded that “there is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration.

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In 1989, there was no warning for the impending geomagnetic disturbance, whereas now satellites can provide 30 minutes of advance warning and sun observation up to 2–3 days ahead of impact. This warning could provide utilities an opportunity to protect the grid—for example, implementing operating procedures that are designed to protect critical transformers. The time constants determining impacts on transformers from solar storms (or from the E3 portion of electromagnetic pulse [EMP] events) are slow enough that there is time to protect transformers even as the event is occurring. Developing standard approaches for real time monitoring of transformers that could be susceptible to damage during solar storms (which can be identified through vulnerability assessments required by NERC) would help operators minimize damage. Such real-time monitoring could be combined with automated protection schemes that prevent transformer damage from geomagnetic disturbances. Other engineering solutions exist to make electrical systems more resistant to geomagnetic disturbances, including building better protection into transformers and designing systems to provide more reactive power on demand.

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Restoration is the most tangible and publicly visible phase of the event life cycle. As soon as conditions permit safe dispatch of crews, utilities develop a high-resolution understanding of damages with manned and unmanned aerial vehicles as well as crews on the ground. Based on this understanding, priorities for restoration are established and repairs initiated, often through the shared resources previously arranged in mutual assistance agreements. If a critical transformer without a replacement is damaged, the system may have to be operated in a reduced state until a suitable replacement can be provided. System operators manage switching to support physical restoration. Central operations also provide information to customers and support field crews by providing the necessary materials, replacement components, repair equipment, and qualified workers, as well as transportation and provisioning. This may require coordinating with state or federal officials to waive regulations or even using military resources in extreme cases. If there are regions of the interconnection with power, restoration may proceed from the “edge”; alternatively, utilities may initiate black-start5 procedures. As installations of DERs continue to increase, there are growing opportunities to use these resources in restoration and black start; however, significant research is needed to demonstrate this capability.

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Floods (Point F in Figure 3/1) can take many forms, from very abrupt flash floods that follow a sudden rainstorm or the breach of a dam, to events whose buildup occurs over extended periods. Floods can damage distribution or transmission towers and their footings or damage equipment installed on the ground. Most utilities have used historical flood data to choose locations for major facilities, such as substations, that are unlikely to be inundated.

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There are a vast number of potential types of operations error—in both control rooms and in the field—that can lead to cascading blackouts (https://longthanhtourist.com/serial-code/?file=3926), which makes planning difficult. Fortunately, because virtually all key components of the power system have protective devices that disconnect before damage can occur, cascading blackouts (https://longthanhtourist.com/serial-code/?file=1466) typically do not cause serious physical damage to system components beyond the initiating failure. Depending on system conditions and the nature of faults, operator error can unfold over periods of minutes to hours, and there may be opportunities to detect errors and take corrective action. With improved training and drilling, better instrumentation, improved situational awareness, and improved control methods, the risks of operator error leading to cascading failure have been, and can continue to be, reduced. Project blackout aimbot hack. At the same time, other external threats such as terrorist attacks and pandemics can place operators under stress and potentially increase the probability of errors. In Figure 3/1, operations errors are denoted by point O.